Why Does India Report Only Dozens of Rabies Deaths When a Study Estimates Thousands?
Two very different numbers describe rabies deaths in India, and a report in The Hindu on October 4, 2026 lays out why they do not match.
The two sets of numbers
- The Health Ministry's surveillance system (IDSP-IHIP) reported 21 rabies deaths in 2022, 50 in 2023 and 54 in 2024. It had no full-year figure for 2025.
- The Registrar General's medical certification system (MCCD) recorded 66 medically certified rabies deaths in 2022 and 271 in 2023.
- A community-based study led by ICMR-NIE and published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases estimates 5,726 deaths a year. It surveyed 337,808 people in 78,807 households across 60 districts in 15 states, and estimates about 9.1 million animal bites a year, including about 5.6 million dog bites.
The 5,726 is a modelled estimate built from the survey, lab data and a decision-tree model. It is not a count of recorded deaths.
Why the gap is so large
The Hindu reports that the systems measure different things. Surveillance tracks reported disease cases. MCCD covers only medically certified causes of death, and it reached just 22.3% of registered deaths in 2022 and 22.0% in 2023. Neither gives a complete national count. The Health Ministry says deaths outside the formal health system make it harder still to capture the full burden. A senior ministry official said the figures should not be treated as directly equivalent.
The 2024 surveillance figure of 54 is under 1% of the study's estimate.
Why rabies is a special case
The World Health Organization says that once symptoms appear, rabies is fatal in virtually 100% of cases, and that dogs cause up to 99% of human cases. It also says deaths are preventable with prompt post-exposure treatment: wash the wound with soap and water for at least 15 minutes, get a course of rabies vaccine and, when indicated, rabies immunoglobulin. This is general guidance, not medical advice for a specific bite. After any bite or scratch from an animal that may be rabid, see a doctor.
What is being done
India aims to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies by 2030. The National Centre for Disease Control says it is working to make human rabies a notifiable disease across the country and has asked all states to notify it under state law.
Sources
- The Hindu, "Rabies deaths recorded in India far lesser than estimates from ICMR-led study", October 4, 2026: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/rabies-deaths-recorded-in-india-far-lesser-than-estimates-from-icmr-led-study/article71543554.ece
- World Health Organization, Rabies fact sheet: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/rabies
Facts checked: October 5, 2026. We did not read the Lancet study itself; its figures are as reported by The Hindu.